Transfer values fell to a 12 month-low during November before recovering slightly
Transfer values fell to a 12 month-low during November before recovering slightly
19 Dec 2024
XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index reached a 12-month low, dropping to £151,000 during November 2024 before then recovering to its previous month-end position of £153,000. This continues the trend seen across 2024 of the Index remaining low and being broadly flat.
XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index saw a marginal increase over November 2024, to an annualised rate of 20 members in every 1,000 transferring their benefits to alternative arrangements. This is only the second time in the past 12 months where the Index has been at or above 0.2%.
89% of cases reviewed by the XPS Scam Protection Service in November 2024 raised at least one scam warning flag, according to XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index. This represents an increase of 3% compared to October 2024, but overall, the Index remains relatively stable.
Helen Cavanagh, Senior Consultant, XPS Group, said: "The trend of lower transfer values continued into another month in 2024, as we observed yet another month of the Transfer Value Index remaining steady. Although there has been a small increase in transfer activity over the month, transfer volumes continue to be very low. We also note a rise in the number of cases raising a scam warning flag, reminding us of the need to have robust processes in place to safeguard members’ benefits.”
Chart 1 - XPS Transfer Value Index
Chart 2 - XPS Transfer Activity Index
Chart 3 – XPS Scam Flag Index
Table 1 – Transfer Watch over the past 12 months
Source: XPS Group – All data is at the end of each month.
Notes:
XPS Transfer Watch is part of XPSArena, a free to access destination for learning support and development for people in pensions. Users will be able to scrutinise the latest data contributing to the headline Scam Flag Index, with filters available to compare warning flag prevalence over time and by several demographic groupings.
XPS Transfer Watch monitors how market developments have affected transfer values for an example member, as well as how many members are choosing to take a transfer value.
XPS Group’s Transfer Value Index shows the estimated Cash Transfer Value of a 64-year-old member with a pension of £10,000 a year with typical inflation increases. The value changes over time with market movements. Mortality assumptions are reviewed periodically.
XPS Group’s Transfer Activity Index represent the annualised proportion of members that transfer out of pension schemes administered by XPS. If replicated across all private sector, funded, UK, DB schemes this indicates that approximately 10,000 DB members leave their schemes each year
XPS Group’s Scam Flag Index tracks the percentage of monthly transfers reviewed by the businesses’ scam protection service that are identified as having warning ‘flags’ which indicate that the member is at risk of being scammed. The flags monitored include both the DWP’s set list of amber and red warnings and further areas of concern identified and monitored by XPS’ Scam Protection Service. The service is provided to the Trustees of approximately 500 occupational pension schemes.